基于风雨倒伏指数的吉林省玉米倒伏气候风险评估

Climate Risk Assessment of Maize Lodging in Jilin Province Based on Wind and Rain Lodging Index

摘要:

利用1981-2020年气象数据、风灾灾情资料，确定吉林省玉米倒伏风、雨阈值，基于风雨倒伏指数构建玉米倒伏气候风险指数，开展吉林省玉米倒伏气候风险评估。结果表明，近40年大风日数下降是玉米拔节-成熟期风雨倒伏指数显著下降的主要原因。吉林省玉米拔节-抽雄期、抽雄-乳熟期、乳熟-成熟期倒伏频率依次为14.5%、6.7%、9.2%，风雨倒伏指数依次为1.9、1.6、2.1 m/s，抽雄-乳熟期的倒伏频率和强度均在3个生育阶段中最小，利于玉米稳产。吉林省玉米倒伏气候风险较高区域主要分布在西部白城市以及中东部交界处的长春市和吉林市，中西部大部分区域属于中风险区，东部通化市、白山市、延边州大部为低风险区。

Abstract:

Using meteorological data and wind disaster data from 1981 to 2020, the wind and rain thresholds of maize lodging in Jilin Province were determined. Based on the wind and rain lodging index, a maize lodging climate risk index was constructed, and a maize lodging climate risk assessment was conducted in Jilin Province. The results indicate that the decrease in the number of strong wind days in the past 40 years is the main reason for the significant decrease in the wind and rain lodging index during the maize jointing to maturity period. The lodging frequency during the jointing to tasseling stages, tasseling to milking stages, and milking to ripening stages of maize in Jilin Province were 14.5%, 6.7%, and 9.2%, respectively. The wind and rain lodging index was 1.9, 1.6, and 2.1 m/s, respectively. This indicated that the lodging frequency and intensity during the tasseling milking stages were the smallest among the three growth stages, which was conducive to stable maize production. The areas with high climate risk of maize lodging were mainly distributed at the western part of Baicheng City and at the junction of the central and eastern regions, such as Changchun City and Jilin City. Most of the central and western regions belong to medium risk areas, while the eastern parts of Tonghua City, Baishan City, and Yanbian Prefecture were mostly low-risk areas.